Post 34: The Curious Case of the Cursed Contract

Now that we’ve just passed the MLB All Star break let’s take a look at one of the more controversial contracts given out this past off season, the 7 year 126 million dollar deal given to Jayson Werth by the Nationals. If you’re thinking that those numbers sound familiar they should because Werth’s deal is the same in length and money as the deals signed by both Vernon Wells and Barry Zito in 2006. They say good things come in threes but now 5 years later with Werth’s deal it appears the opposite is also true.

December 18th, 2006 the day Vernon Wells signed was when this saga began. Coming off a nice campaign in which he hit 32 home runs Wells was the leader of the Blue Jays and had the pedigree to warrant an extension. However the deal didn’t look smart for long. Fast forward to 2011 and Wells isn’t even a Blue Jay anymore. Through his first 63 games as an Angel Wells has struggled, hitting .221 with a cringe worthy .664 OPS. His 14 home runs in 267 at bats has him on pace for 27 this year, but that’s hardly a worthwhile silver lining for the 23 million he’s making.

Now to Barry Zito, contract number 2 in this unholy trinity of deals. As they say even the best laid plans often go awry, and awry they went with this contract. Since joining the Giants Zito hasn’t had a full season with an ERA under 4.00 and in 2008 he had the worst season of his career. As a Giant Zito hasn’t even come close to living up to the 18.5 million he’s making annually and with his contract running until 2013 his team is in big trouble. Why? In 2011 and 2012 Matt Cain and then Tim Lincecum become unrestricted free agents and barring a miracle San Fran can’t afford all 3. So before Zito’s time by the Bay is over, one of these pitchers is going to have to go and Zito’s contract is as untradeable as they come.

Now finally on to Jayson Werth, since signing his deal Werth’s performance has plummeted. After conveniently putting together the best numbers of his career in his walk year Jayson has seen his stock tumble. He’s gone from being a legitimate 30 home run, 20 stolen base threat to something much worse. While the speed is still there, he has 11 swipes already in 2011, not much else remains. His average is an abysmbal .211, his slugging percentage is 180 points lower than last season and sits at .352 and not only that his gag inducing .669 OPS ranks him in a tie for 123rd overall in the Majors with such offensive dynamos like Corey Patterson and Danny Valencia. These offensive woes would be easier to stomach if Werth was playing spectacular defense, but he isn’t. With 6 errors so far he has already matched a career high while consistently making a mess of right field. In short, Werth is barely performing at replacement level, much less the level a team and its fans expect from a player earning an average of 18 million dollars per season. Not only that, but when Wells and Zito signed their contracts they did so at 27 and 28 respectively, Werth on the other hand signed his deal at 32. Yes, he hit his stride later than most players, having his breakout campaign at 29, but since the end of the steroid era most players have peaked by this age and knowing he’s under contract until he’s 38 is nightmare fuel for management and supporters alike. One lone bright spot for the Nats is that Jayson Werth is typically a good 2nd half producer, July and August are when his bat heats up, but if it doesn’t this deal could look like an albatross after less than 162 games.

Jayson Werth still has 6 and a half seasons to do something Vernon Wells and Barry Zito haven’t, prove his deal isn’t one of the worst of all time, but in expansive Nationals park and with father time working against him, there is no guarantee that he won’t be “Jayson Worthless” when it’s all said and done.

A little extra food for thought:

-Vernon Wells in 640 games since signing his extension has hit only 96 home runs and 347 RBI while batting a mediocre .262 with a .759 OPS, not exactly elite production.

-Barry Zito’s career 180: With Oakland Zito went 102-63 with a 3.55 ERA and a 1.250 WHIP. Since joining the Giants, Zito sports a 43-59 record with a 4.47 ERA and a 1.401 WHIP.

-Jayson Werth just slumping? Since June 1st, 2011: 40 games, 22H/145AB, 2HR, 10RBI, 5SB, 41K, .152AVG, .283OBP, .518OPS